Friday, April 30, 2010

trend

The USD is slipping as the EUR continue to bounce on hopes that the details of Greece's bailout package will be announced over the weekend. Reports that Greece is signing up to a EUR24bn austerity package and assurances from European Commission President Barroso that a deal is close helped sentiment. The immediate focus is now on U.S. 1Q GDP data 1230 GMT. This should confirm that the recovery is on track with the economy expanding by 3.3% annualised. The JPY came under pressure as the BOJ singled further monetary easing even though its inflation forecasts suggest that deflation is coming to an end. The USD is up at Y94.18 while the EUR is up at $1.3297. The GBP is up at $1.5378, helped by opinion polls showing that the Conservatives are taking a more commanding lead ahead of next week's general election. This could reduce fears of a hung parliament.

USD/JPY's moving averages

USD/JPY's moving averages are back to bullish and with prices holding above these this week a cautious upside probe should be allowed for either today or Monday says trader. However she cautions to watch for signs of topping in the rate and for a trading strategy favors selling around 94.00, with a stop above 94.85 for downside targets of 93.60 and 92.60. USD/JPY now at 94.15.

GBP/USD fairly quickly toward 1.5500

GBP/USD has so far failed to test the 1.5400 tag Friday but any move above here is likely to see stops triggered which could propel the rate fairly quickly toward 1.5500 says a trader. He favors buying between 1.5375 and 1.5325 with a stop below 1.53, taking profit ahead of 1.55 where he says small shorts may be worth a look. GBP/USD now at 1.5370.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

EUR/USD continues to decline

EUR/USD continues to decline, with EUR/JPY also recently hitting intraday low, as risk flees markets on worries of Greek sovereign debt, which investors worry is also spreading to euro zone periphery, including Portugal, Spain and Italy, says trader. EUR/USD at 1.3285 from 1.3364 late Mon, according to EBS via CQG. EUR/JPY down more than 1.25% on day. "The situation there just continues to get worse and worse," Oubina said of Greece and the euro zone periphery.

Monday, April 26, 2010

EUR/USD DOWN TO 1.3000

As the Greek bail-out fails to give the EUR any serious support, Barclays Capital says it is looking for a slide to 1.30. The bank reckons that while there is a lot of risk premium factored into the EUR, the possibility of an imminent debt restructuring and associated contagion is probably not. "For now, we maintain our target for EUR/USD at 1.3000, under the assumption that Greece will pull through the April/May redemption period but that medium-term financing risks will keep the euro weak," the bank says. The pair is now at 1.3317.

EUR/USD pushes lower

EUR/USD pushes lower, as Friday's rebound after Greece asked for the bailout stalls. EUR/USD now at 1.3328, just off the day's 1.3317 low, and off the 1.3372 level seen late Friday in NY. The activation of the EMU/IMF package would add more uncertainties to already fragile markets, says BNP Paribas. Says Greece asking for the package is a sign of failure as private funds couldn't finance its deficit. Also, this will now put the focus on other countries, such as Portugal.

GBP rising vs USD

GBP rising vs USD, JPY due to buying from non-Japanese hedge funds, as they likely have many short positions that must be covered, say senior dealers at major banks in Tokyo. "There were still some investors who haven't been able to adjust their positions to market conditions after Sunday's Greece announcement," one says. Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said Sunday he expects final terms of IMF, EU rescue package to be ready by early May. But Mizuho Corporate Bank's senior dealer Satoshi Tate says it's too early to become bullish on GBP because risk from upcoming U.K. elections remains; if ruling party unable to maintain majority in parliament at coming elections, government may face difficulty eliminating budget deficit, a negative factor to U.K. bonds. Dealers say GBP/USD may rise to recent high of 1.5525 vs last 1.5450. GBP/JPY may rise to psychological resistance of 146.00 vs last 145.54.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Euro Today

The euro's descent against the dollar is accelerating, hitting a new low for the day at 1.3528 weighed by nerves over Greece. On a technical basis, a sustained break below 1.3483 would be negative. Now 1.3535.